Richard Mannsaid, I'm not sure independence is the key here: of course the NYT assumes that you use the same contraception over 10 years, so thats not independent. Perhaps people would get better at using it over time, reducing the failure rate, but I think another explanation could be sub-populations that use the contraceptive well or not.
e.g. You get a better fit to the Korst et al data if you assume the are two sub-populations that use the contraceptive with different efficacies. Heres the results for using male condoms
with ~97% using the contraceptive well (3% failure rate per 3 months) and 3% using it very badly (80% failure per 3 months).
James Herbert-Read said, Hi Richard, Thanks for your comments. Your point that different individuals could use contraception more effectively than others is exactly what we mean by non-independence. Say 18 out of 100 women using male condoms have an unexpected pregnancy in year one. Do the remaining 82 women still have an 0.18 chance each of having an unexpected pregnancy in year two? No - because of exactly the reason you say. Different individuals are likely to be more or less effective at using particular forms of contraception - the years are not independent. And the data show this. It's nice to see your simple model supports this claim!
gjsazvpwsaid, "I want the contagion to stop," said Schenke, a personal trainer who recently moved from Spring Lake Heights to Point Pleasant. "I want young people to understand that life will get better. And I want to help people who might be suffering from the same things that Tim did." [url=http://www.ghg-composants.fr/]louboutin homme pas cher[/url] One thing which struck me during my recent missions to Syria and Iraq is how little prepared national governments are to respond to the needs of IDPs. v [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url]
The Australian all-rounder proved an extremely astute addition to Durham鈥檚 squad, taking 65 wickets and scoring more than 550 runs in all forms of the game during his three-month stay. Little wonder the county are so keen to re-sign him ahead of the start of next season. [url=http://www.le-bk.fr/]air max pas cher[/url] We have a crew that comes in our daughter, our niece and our nephew. Our daughter and our niece grow roses too, said Ruth.
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While Tomlin was the notable absentee, Boro ended preparations for the new season by defeating Getafe courtesy of Kike鈥檚 third goal in two games. His clinical side-footed finish nine minutes after half-time proved the difference, after a lovely incisive pass from Downing. [url=http://www.joffreyfaroux.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url] recognition of a nuclear Iran: "The issue of negotiating with the Americans
y Smith, a Baltimore native, told 11 News he聽looks forward to being a part of the Baltimore Police Department. He will serve in a civilian capacity and will take unpaid leave from the Anne Arundel County Police Department during his tenure in the city. His start date in the city will be announced by BPD. [url=http://www.pourmetz.fr/]nike air max pas cher[/url] There's certainly a lot of expectations and a lot of opinions flying around about how we should play, but I just try to keep our heads down and work hard and the results will come if we do that. [url=http://www.okazo.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url]
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Hatchbacks like this aren't designed to tickle the tastebuds of journalists. Their good points - turn-key dependability, comfort and ease of ownership - usually emerge over months and years whereas the average road test is all done in a couple of days. [url=http://www.musicales-boffres.fr/]tn pas cher[/url] Noah was announced as the new host back in March.
Otherwise, I won t reach where I want to be, said Hoshi, who became the first Japanese female swimmer to win a gold medal at worlds. [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]christian louboutin pas cher[/url] There is no data on the total number of in Thailand, but unconfirmed reports suggest there could be between 3,000 and 20,000.
I wanted to see what kind of player they were coming out and see if there had been any progression, Jones said. Some guys you noticed a difference. I had to grade and evaluate them as if I had been coaching them. [url=http://www.mileas.fr/]http://www.mileas.fr[/url] When I visited recently with my family, we were lucky enough to get a tour from winery owner Kent Schwickert.
Oconomowoc 2, Beaver Dam 1: Trevor Trepton assisted goals to Ryan Hammer and Elijah Tesch in the second half to lift Cooney. [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]chaussure louboutin pas cher[/url] That home turf edge would be crucial for the two Queensland sides, particularly the Cowboys,.
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Meantime it emerged late on Tuesday that Israel fully expects the U.S. Congress will comply with its wishes and vote down the Iran nuclear deal. [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]christian louboutin pas cher[/url] We ve discovered that this city loves parades, Justice said. It definitely has that small-town atmosphere. j [url=http://www.musicales-boffres.fr/]tn pas cher[/url]
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s The group's name is a play on the Queens neighborhood in New York 鈥撀燼nd the ambiguity of the name appealed to the band, according to lead singer Spencer. [url=http://www.dj-animateur-manche.fr/]nike tn requin pas cher[/url] Ms Martin said investors were also wondering if the PBoC will further devalue its currency and whether such a move will postpone a Federal Reserve interest rate rise. r
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Herbert Gamboa, a starting outside linebacker and senior on the team, pleaded guilty Monday to a misdemeanor charge of disorderly conduct. [url=http://www.pourmetz.fr/]chaussure air max pas cher[/url] Visit dahlia shows to identify new varieties you'd like to grow. j [url=http://www.pourmetz.fr/]chaussure air max pas cher[/url]
The Derbyshire openers had 24 on the board from three overs before Stokes came on and Wes Durston pulled his first ball for four and drove the second wide of mid-off. [url=http://www.dj-animateur-manche.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url] Gordon tried all available treatments, including medication, but nothing worked. About to start graduate school at Harvard, Gordon decided deep brain stimulation was the best option.
Ms Bishop came to the meeting armed with action plans: [url=http://www.ghg-composants.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url] NPC s Perera argued that for violence to break out even after such clear warnings demonstrated the government was not taking the issue seriously. n [url=http://www.okazo.fr/]chaussure nike tn pas cher[/url]
鈥淚t鈥檚 a much bigger job than I envisaged, but I relish the challenge. [url=http://www.okazo.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url] It is an agonising wait for the family of N. Chenna Rao, a resident of Srinagar Colony in S.N. Puram, who went missing on June 21 in Nepal.nn1
Richard Mann said, I'm not sure independence is the key here: of course the NYT assumes that you use the same contraception over 10 years, so thats not independent. Perhaps people would get better at using it over time, reducing the failure rate, but I think another explanation could be sub-populations that use the contraceptive well or not.
e.g. You get a better fit to the Korst et al data if you assume the are two sub-populations that use the contraceptive with different efficacies. Heres the results for using male condoms
http://imgur.com/2hm48ML
with ~97% using the contraceptive well (3% failure rate per 3 months) and 3% using it very badly (80% failure per 3 months).
James Herbert-Read said, Hi Richard, Thanks for your comments. Your point that different individuals could use contraception more effectively than others is exactly what we mean by non-independence. Say 18 out of 100 women using male condoms have an unexpected pregnancy in year one. Do the remaining 82 women still have an 0.18 chance each of having an unexpected pregnancy in year two? No - because of exactly the reason you say. Different individuals are likely to be more or less effective at using particular forms of contraception - the years are not independent. And the data show this. It's nice to see your simple model supports this claim!
gjsazvpw said, "I want the contagion to stop," said Schenke, a personal trainer who recently moved from Spring Lake Heights to Point Pleasant. "I want young people to understand that life will get better. And I want to help people who might be suffering from the same things that Tim did." [url=http://www.ghg-composants.fr/]louboutin homme pas cher[/url] One thing which struck me during my recent missions to Syria and Iraq is how little prepared national governments are to respond to the needs of IDPs. v [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url]
The Australian all-rounder proved an extremely astute addition to Durham鈥檚 squad, taking 65 wickets and scoring more than 550 runs in all forms of the game during his three-month stay. Little wonder the county are so keen to re-sign him ahead of the start of next season. [url=http://www.le-bk.fr/]air max pas cher[/url] We have a crew that comes in our daughter, our niece and our nephew. Our daughter and our niece grow roses too, said Ruth.
Cassidy Johnson, jr., West Plains [url=http://www.mileas.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url] Gracie Salanio-Ocampo, president of AZ Entertainment Hub, the organiser of the event, said the one-night live performance dubbed as Reggae and Laughter will be 鈥渁n evening of music and an explosion of comedic chaos.鈥?r [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url]
While Tomlin was the notable absentee, Boro ended preparations for the new season by defeating Getafe courtesy of Kike鈥檚 third goal in two games. His clinical side-footed finish nine minutes after half-time proved the difference, after a lovely incisive pass from Downing. [url=http://www.joffreyfaroux.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url] recognition of a nuclear Iran: "The issue of negotiating with the Americans
y Smith, a Baltimore native, told 11 News he聽looks forward to being a part of the Baltimore Police Department. He will serve in a civilian capacity and will take unpaid leave from the Anne Arundel County Police Department during his tenure in the city. His start date in the city will be announced by BPD. [url=http://www.pourmetz.fr/]nike air max pas cher[/url] There's certainly a lot of expectations and a lot of opinions flying around about how we should play, but I just try to keep our heads down and work hard and the results will come if we do that. [url=http://www.okazo.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url]
It is impossible to predict what will happen next season. The summer is going to be a crucial period at , the Stadium of Light and the Riverside Stadium. [url=http://www.ghg-composants.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url] Stick 鈥檈m up http://www.michaelkorsbags.me
The coaches have their hopes, too. [url=http://www.dj-animateur-manche.fr/]nike pas cher[/url] The county governments will also be expected to mobilize revenue from other sources within their counties, such as taxes on property and entertainment. g [url=http://www.joffreyfaroux.fr/]tn pas cher[/url]
Hatchbacks like this aren't designed to tickle the tastebuds of journalists. Their good points - turn-key dependability, comfort and ease of ownership - usually emerge over months and years whereas the average road test is all done in a couple of days. [url=http://www.musicales-boffres.fr/]tn pas cher[/url] Noah was announced as the new host back in March.
Otherwise, I won t reach where I want to be, said Hoshi, who became the first Japanese female swimmer to win a gold medal at worlds. [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]christian louboutin pas cher[/url] There is no data on the total number of in Thailand, but unconfirmed reports suggest there could be between 3,000 and 20,000.
I wanted to see what kind of player they were coming out and see if there had been any progression, Jones said. Some guys you noticed a difference. I had to grade and evaluate them as if I had been coaching them. [url=http://www.mileas.fr/]http://www.mileas.fr[/url] When I visited recently with my family, we were lucky enough to get a tour from winery owner Kent Schwickert.
Oconomowoc 2, Beaver Dam 1: Trevor Trepton assisted goals to Ryan Hammer and Elijah Tesch in the second half to lift Cooney. [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]chaussure louboutin pas cher[/url] That home turf edge would be crucial for the two Queensland sides, particularly the Cowboys,.
k Since 1964, members of Darlington Video Makers Club have worked to create innumerable films, many of which showcase the town and its rich heritage. [url=http://www.mileas.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url] Open it up, and you've got a paper bag. If needed, add reinforcement to the bottom by cutting a rectangle of thin cardboard (like from an empty cereal box) and placing it in the bottom of the bag. Add handles with two pieces of ribbon, either tied in a loop through two hole punches on each side, or simply taped to the inside.
Meantime it emerged late on Tuesday that Israel fully expects the U.S. Congress will comply with its wishes and vote down the Iran nuclear deal. [url=http://www.leslascarsgays.fr/]christian louboutin pas cher[/url] We ve discovered that this city loves parades, Justice said. It definitely has that small-town atmosphere. j [url=http://www.musicales-boffres.fr/]tn pas cher[/url]
Whether it is the reduced lifetime allowance (拢1m from 2016), a potential reduction in the amount of tax relief available or the new flexibility rules, changes like these mean you should be looking at your pension contributions to ensure they remain suitable. [url=http://www.ghg-composants.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url] Alexian Village of Milwaukee is a continuing care retirement community offering Independent Apartments, Assisted Living, Rehabilitative Services, Skilled Nursing and Adult Day Services. 9301 N. 76 Street, Milwaukee, WI. 53223||
s The group's name is a play on the Queens neighborhood in New York 鈥撀燼nd the ambiguity of the name appealed to the band, according to lead singer Spencer. [url=http://www.dj-animateur-manche.fr/]nike tn requin pas cher[/url] Ms Martin said investors were also wondering if the PBoC will further devalue its currency and whether such a move will postpone a Federal Reserve interest rate rise. r
Yorkshire Bank 0800 202122 3.99%F to 31.3.20 90% 拢999 Yes [url=http://www.ghg-composants.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url] The monthly data that MTM reports to the state shows late rides for all patients a number that's been hovering around 200 a month this year but does not spell out how many of them were to critical care. [url=http://www.joffreyfaroux.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url]
Herbert Gamboa, a starting outside linebacker and senior on the team, pleaded guilty Monday to a misdemeanor charge of disorderly conduct. [url=http://www.pourmetz.fr/]chaussure air max pas cher[/url] Visit dahlia shows to identify new varieties you'd like to grow. j [url=http://www.pourmetz.fr/]chaussure air max pas cher[/url]
The Derbyshire openers had 24 on the board from three overs before Stokes came on and Wes Durston pulled his first ball for four and drove the second wide of mid-off. [url=http://www.dj-animateur-manche.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url] Gordon tried all available treatments, including medication, but nothing worked. About to start graduate school at Harvard, Gordon decided deep brain stimulation was the best option.
Ms Bishop came to the meeting armed with action plans: [url=http://www.ghg-composants.fr/]louboutin pas cher[/url] NPC s Perera argued that for violence to break out even after such clear warnings demonstrated the government was not taking the issue seriously. n [url=http://www.okazo.fr/]chaussure nike tn pas cher[/url]
鈥淚t鈥檚 a much bigger job than I envisaged, but I relish the challenge. [url=http://www.okazo.fr/]nike tn pas cher[/url] It is an agonising wait for the family of N. Chenna Rao, a resident of Srinagar Colony in S.N. Puram, who went missing on June 21 in Nepal.nn1